光伏步入平价时代。过去光伏行业发展缺乏内生增长动力，主要原因是光伏发电度电成本显 著高于其他能源，因此光伏终端装机需求依赖于补贴政策，当补贴退坡速度大于产业链成本 下降速度时，例如 2018 年中国“531”时，需求量就会快速下降。伴随光伏产业链整体降本 增效，光伏发电投资成本逐步下降、经济性逐步提升。2021 年，根据 CPIA 数据，我国地面 光伏电站初始投资成本约 4.15 元/W，其中组件成本约占 46%，我国工商业分布式光伏系统 初始投资成本为 3.74 元/W，其中组件成本约占 50%。未来随着硅料新增产能逐步落地，供 不应求状况改善，上游原材料带来的成本压力有望逐步缓解，以及硅片大尺寸化、N 型电池 提高转化效率等新的技术趋势带来的降本效果，未来组件环节的成本还有一定下降空间。

针对我国光伏电站的平准发电成本（LCOE），根据 CPIA 测算，2021 年，全投资模型下地 面光伏电站在 1800/1500/1200 小时等效利用小时数的 LCOE 分别为 0.21、0.25、0.31 元/ 千瓦时，分布式光伏发电系统的 LCOE 分别为 0.19、0.22、0.28 元/千瓦时，与全国各地区 0.28-0.45 元/千瓦时的燃煤发电上网电价相比，光伏发电已充分具备经济性。我们预计未来 光伏发电 LCOE 有望随着初始投资、运维等环节的优化而进一步下降。

国内分布式光伏受益于多重利好，未来发展空间广阔。与集中式光伏项目相比，分布式光 伏具有收益率高、可开发资源多、就地消纳等优势。2021 年国内分布式新增光伏装机达 29.28GW，同增 88.7%，占全部新增的比例达 53%，创历史新高。

Photovoltaic has entered the era of parity. In the past, the development of the photovoltaic industry lacked endogenous growth momentum. The main reason was that the cost of photovoltaic power generation was significantly higher than that of other energy sources. Therefore, the demand for photovoltaic terminal installations depended on the subsidy policy. When China "531", the demand will drop rapidly. With the overall cost reduction and efficiency improvement of the photovoltaic industry chain, the investment cost of photovoltaic power generation has gradually decreased and the economy has gradually improved. In 2021, according to CPIA data, the initial investment cost of my country's ground photovoltaic power station is about 4.15 yuan/W, of which the component cost accounts for about 46%. The initial investment cost of my country's industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic system is 3.74 yuan/W, of which the component cost accounts for about 50%. . In the future, with the gradual implementation of new production capacity of silicon materials and the improvement of the shortage of supply, the cost pressure caused by upstream raw materials is expected to gradually ease, and the cost reduction effect brought by new technological trends such as large-scale silicon wafers and improved conversion efficiency of N-type batteries. , the cost of components in the future still has a certain room for reduction.

For the levelized cost of electricity generation (LCOE) of photovoltaic power plants in my country, according to CPIA estimates, in 2021, the LCOE of ground photovoltaic power plants under the full investment model in 1800/1500/1200 hours of equivalent utilization hours will be 0.21, 0.25, and 0.31 yuan/hour, respectively. The LCOE of distributed photovoltaic power generation system is 0.19, 0.22 and 0.28 yuan/kWh respectively. Compared with the coal-fired power generation on-grid price of 0.28-0.45 yuan/kWh in various regions of the country, photovoltaic power generation is fully economical. We expect that in the future, the LCOE of photovoltaic power generation is expected to further decline with the optimization of initial investment, operation and maintenance and other links.

The proportion of photovoltaic power generation in China is still relatively low, and the proportion is rapidly increasing. At present, the main forms of power generation in my country include thermal power, hydropower, nuclear power, wind power and photovoltaics, of which thermal power generation dominates. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2021, my country's total power generation was about 723.4 billion kWh, of which thermal power accounted for 75%, a year-on-year decrease of 3pct, and photovoltaic power generation accounted for 2.0%, a year-on-year increase of 0.6pct.
Domestic distributed photovoltaics benefit from multiple advantages and have broad space for future development. Compared with centralized photovoltaic projects, distributed photovoltaics have the advantages of high yield, more developable resources, and local consumption. In 2021, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity of domestic distributed photovoltaics will reach 29.28GW, an increase of 88.7%, accounting for 53% of all new additions, a record high.